Economic Research Section
The competition among energy industries, including electricity, gas and oil, is expected to become more intense in Hokkaido because of soaring world oil prices and sluggish energy demand due to population decrease.
Based on the changes in the above business environment, the Economic Research Section analyzes the comprehensive energy demand in Hokkaido, not just electricity but major energy sources including oil and gas.
Comparing the predicted value of final energy demand in FY 2007 to the actual estimated figures in the same year, we have found that there is a 2.0% margin of error. We think that the error occurred mainly because energy per unit decreased in each demand sector in the wake of a higher oil price than we initially expected.
According to the analyses of the relationship between oil prices and energy per unit since FY 2000, we have found that there are negative correlations in all demand sectors. We have also found that the sensitivity of the industrial sectors and residential sectors is different, and households responded about six months later than the industrial sectors.
We have found that energy per unit was decreased in each demand sectors in from FY 2006 to 2007, and the energy-saving habits associated with a rising oil price have been more proceeded than we initially expected.
Based on the above analysis results, we have estimated the energy demand in Hokkaido from now through FY 2018. Hokkaido's final energy demand in FY2008 and 2009 will greatly decrease from the previous year respectively due to crude oil price hikes and global recession. As a result, the average growth rate in FY 2007-2018 is expected to be -0.23%.
Fig.1 Year-on-year increase in gross production and final energy demand in Hokkaido (Predicted value)
Our subsequent studies will provide a sufficient comparison and examination of FY 2008 predicted values and results. We will also review Hokkaido's energy demand forecasting method and resulting data to obtain higher data accuracy.