Economic Analysis of Energy Demand in Hokkaido

The competition among energy industries, including electricity, gas and oil, is expected to become more intense in Hokkaido because of soaring world oil prices and sluggish energy demand due to population decrease.

Based on the changes in the above business environment, the Economic Research Section analyzes the comprehensive energy demand in Hokkaido, not just electricity but major energy sources including oil and gas.

1. According to the analysis of energy demand trends after FY 2000, the following findings were obtained with regard to Hokkaido energy demand.

   • With soaring crude oil prices, the petroleum energy demand has significantly declined particularly after FY 2005.
   • Energy-saving habits due to soaring energy prices causes a significant decline in the specific energy consumption both for consumer and industrial use after FY 2005.
   • While the component ratio by energy source is relatively constant in the manufacturing industry, energy demand in offices and households shifted from petroleum energy to electricity and gas.

2. Based on the above analysis results, we forecasted the energy demand in Hokkaido until FY 2017 and the prediction result shows as follows.

   • Energy demand in Hokkaido will grow at a sluggish pace due to low local economic growth.
   • The shift in energy demand from petroleum energy to electricity and gas will continue even after FY 2007.
   • Energy-saving habits from FY 2005 to FY 2006 will be found on a smaller scale after FY 2007 as well.

Fig-1 Year-on-year increase in GDP and final energy demand in Hokkaido (predicted value)